Predict Drake’s First-Week Album Sales

Thank Me Later

Drake is prepared to reign over the Billboard charts this Tuesday when his debut album Thank Me Later finally arrives in stores. Young Money’s shining star is easily the most-talked-about hip-hop newcomer of the past year, but can he translate his buzz into sales?

How many copies do you think Drizzy will sell in his first week? Will he have the best debut of the year or fall short of expectations? And will he give Lil Wayne’s Tha Carter III a run for its money?

Make your predictions below.

STATS:
• Drake’s So Far Gone EP has sold 469,000 copies to date, according to Nielsen SoundScan. This is for the commercial release only and does not include copies of the mixtape downloaded for free off the Internet.
• “Find Your Love” is currently No. 13 on the Billboard Hot 100.
• “Miss Me” debuted at No. 15 this week.
• “Over” sits at No. 21 in its 13th week on the Hot 100.
Thank Me Later is top 20 on Amazon.com’s Bestsellers in Music based on pre-sales.



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85 Comments

  1. Dillon_68

    Damn, based on the statistics, I would say he MIGHT hit Gold within the first 2 weeks, if not instantly, but the economy is so bad, is 1 million even plausible anymore? I hope he goes platinum. I will be contributing to the sales though, fu** bootlegging.

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  2. JanetFan

    LOL @ 20 % of people saying he will sell over 1 million in the first week, he’ll be lucky if he sells that much in under one month….

    The album is too mediocre to sell a million 20 years ago, let alone with the amount of illegal downloading there is at the moment..

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  3. JanetFan

    LOL @ 20 % of people saying he will sell over 1 million in the first week, he’ll be lucky if he sells that much in under one month….

    The album is too mediocre to sell a million 20 years ago, let alone with the amount of illegal downloading there is at the moment..

    I reckon, maximum 300,000

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  4. Soul Sista

    Great f*cking POST!!!

    i am going with $300 – $350 k mark!

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  5. Soul Sista

    I think the leak will affect his record sales alot thou. The hype of this album have gone down. Alot of people not really feeling this album.

    So far Gone > Thank me Later.

    Just an observation.

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  6. C

    425 k. C3 leaked 3 weeks or a month before the release and we all know that result.

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  7. ThaBeyonceStan

    I dont think Drake sell a million in the first week. I think he will sell just under 400,000 in the first week. Either way I’ll be buying on June 15

    ‘Why Don’t You Love Me’ video avaliable on iTunes NOW!

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  8. An0thrNight272

    Yeah I say 2-300,000 thou. with leaks and all, that hurts the artist. I mean, based on usher, xtina, etc – you’ll be INCREDIBLY lucky to do more then 300,000 thou. first week.

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  9. ElusivEagle

    im buying at least two copies!! and everyone who already have this ablum (including me) should buy at least one copy!!!

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  10. LOL

    CONSIDERING HE HAS NO TOP 10 HIT SINCE ALMOST 1 YEAR

    I BET HE WILL SELL BETWEEN 250 & 300K

    He & his fans are so denial
    he already released 3 singles and all of them FLOPPED
    Considering the media exposure he got.
    someone will be fired after this FLOP

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  11. .

    its completely possible to sell more than 500+ in the first week coz of the major buzz. th leak wont hurt his chances too much i dnt think

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  12. .

    the leak mite have hurt his chances a bit but over 500k is rle possible

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  13. ...

    i said 400-500 but i think i’m overestimating a bit. drake has a lot of buzz, so it’ll be big, but he’s had no big hit since “best i ever had” and he’s not done the wayne thing (dropped a series of well regarded mixtapes over a period of years). if he sells more than that, i won’t be surprised, but i don’t think he’ll come close to a milli.

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  14. JustSayin

    i say 500-600k #JustSayin

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  15. NEVER

    WHO EVER THINKS HE WILL SALE A MILL MUST UNDER 19…LIL KIDS NEED TO GO BACK TO SCHOOL

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  16. Chris

    I’d rather be an optimist thats sometimes wrong than a pessimist that’s always right,
    so i’m gonna say platinum+ in first week.
    & yeah i dont need to go back to school,
    i still go school motherfucker.

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  17. Chris

    ‘I’d rather be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right’
    Platinum+ in first week.
    & i dont need to go back to school,
    i still go school. :)
    Seen the amount of people that say they’re copping 2 or 3 copies? Seen how huge his internet fanbase & how loyal they are? Seen how a mixtape EP which Drake told people they could still get for free has nearly hit gold numbers? Seen how many different groups of people like him? Go drizzy.

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  18. chad

    ul r kak mad if u think he will do over 150k. if xtina cant do it then he def cant . xtina peaked higher on itunes presales n was in top 10wit pre sales. be real. drake is not the force you think he is. his problem is he made to much of a name for himself as a feature artist. riri only did in the 100ks n u expect hm to do more? haha wake up

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  19. Stephonne

    The market is a hard one right now… I will be buying it but even Christina and other big artists don’t sale as much these days which draws harsh criticism and headlines from bloggers and critics but in truth it the reality of the digital generation. Because of illegal downloading and the ability to purchase single songs from an album on digital retailers it’s impossible to have big selling numbers anymore… I think it’s time to accept that we can’t really judge how good an album is or the quality of the artist by album sales. They will never be a great source of revenue for the industry anymore. Everyone is a cafeteria consumer picking what they want which is great but sometimes I wish music hadn’t become as accessible as it has. Kind of sad… I do think Drake will do well though. We shall see.

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  20. Trey

    ABOUT 87% people here thinks that he’s gonna sell more than 200 000 … COOL WISH ABOUT A MILLI

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  21. Adwiin

    200k max, and stop riding like shit on his dick with gaining platinum in the first week cmon stop daydreaming folks no disrespect to Drake.

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  22. ponyo

    lets see wht happens but after he said “fuck lil kim” he turned me off so i won’t purchase his album …..i thought that was pussy…let the girls fight and u handle ya own bizzness

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  23. S. King

    700k-800k 1st week, ppl 4get wayne had ppl waiting 3yrs for C3 to come out and lollipop was a #1 hit across the charts, but then again who knows ….I
    m holding firm to 700k-800k 1st week, this isn’t the 90′s or early 2000′s anymore …but then you could not have a #1 record and still go 5x platinum that year, like DMX, DMX never had a number record, he just got great rotation on the radio and it wasn’t as easy to download albums. I miss not knowing how my favorite artists CD sounded b4 it actually came out, does anybody remember that feeling we use to get when we’d buy a new CD and hear it for the 1st in our cars or in our rooms while reading the CD booklet? I miss that.

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  24. sashaj

    People must be delusional if they think Drake is going GOLD (500,000 +) first week let alone Platinum ( 1,000,000 +)
    Even though Drake has a huge buzz and honestly the album was actually pretty good so the leak won’t really hurt the sales….He will only sell decent numbers meaning 200,000 + forsure but max 400,000

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  25. yuri

    I will probably sell about 400K, B.O.B. has a #1 hit with “nothing on you” and another top 10 hit with “airplanes” and he only sold like less than 100k. Drake has no top ten single since “every girl” and some ppl, including me, were disappointed with the leak so the buzz went down a little bit.

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  26. math_

    @LOL none of Thank Me Later’s singles flopped. he’s doing GREAT on the radio charts, because of the urban and rhythm support he has! the pop radios are not helpin, so he’s not goin that well on iTunes and stuff.
    well, i bet Find Your Love will soon hit the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100!

    wtv, i think he will debut with 200k lol

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  27. Trey

    yeah but b.o.b is a new artist, drake has already sold more than 400 CD’s…

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  28. XXX

    LMAOOOOOO at ppl thinking we will sell a milli!!i voted 100k-200k becoz of the hype!!and no he wont have the biggest opening of th year,EMINEM will get the biggest opening with maybe 500k or 400k,the CDs dont sell anymore!!lets face it!!

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  29. Trey

    Are you people serious!?
    Drake is one of the biggest stars this year, and with that said, he’ll prob go 225-250k

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  30. LOL

    @math

    pop radios dont play his songs cause THEY SUCK
    And the FLOP of his album wont help it
    and FYI Eminem debut at #1 withtout the support of ANY radios.
    Drake is a WASTE of Money for YM.
    he has no charisma & never get a #1 hit after having THE BIGGEST suopport of the music industry since LIL WAYNE who sold 1 million the 1st week

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  31. Wezzy

    I think he will sell 100-150k first week<<< he's not gonna sell a mill first wekk!!!!! Well Ya better buy it when it comes ouT!!!!!!!!!

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  32. LOL

    DEAD @ Rap up keeping silly comments about the death of kanye west mother & blocking my IP cause I said that Drake will Flop.
    This is why I hate bloggers they think they are the police of opinion.
    they think their opinions are truth and say what they want about people but dont let people giving their opinions.
    #freedomofspeech

    Seeing Drake flopping and artists like Usher having success despite early leaks and insults from bloggers is the best revenge

    As my username said it LOL

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  33. Copyright

    OMG ! 15percent thinking he will do more then a milli ! Jay with Run this town and empire state of mind a top the charts did not do 500k, eminem last year did 600k while it had enormous anticipation because it had been 5years since the last and yall thinking drizzy will do a mil ! no way, he’s album so was so hyped that to many people wanted to download the leak, plus the reaction to the album are really mixed, he hasn’t got one top ten single, yeah wayne did a milli in a week but he had a 5x platinum single out : lollipop etc
    And the highest freshman first week recently wa cudi with 100k and no leak

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  34. Copyright

    So I’d say he does something like 180k-240k but no milli ! he’ll go gold in two or three weeks that’s good for an album in 2010, this year album sales are the lowest since ever in history

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  35. NEVER

    2 chris my point exactly smh. ignorant lil kids

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  36. unknown

    Getting blasted on the internet, he is not liked at all here in my state, which is a state that is very much so, interested in hip-hop and rapp. He is really sending the wrong message to young people especially that it is o.k. to sleep with your friends ex-girl and it’s o.k. to sleep with someone who cares the herpes virus. People now is looking for strongness, smartness, intelligents, non-ghetteo and very respectful men. Sad, how he make-up some cry baby song of Rihanna who has the herpes virus. I would be ashamed and very embrassed to mention such a thing. There’s certain of your business you should never expose, he is not a young teen-ager so, he should have grown up and know these little simple things in life.

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  37. BAMami

    somewhere in the 300k-500k range

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  38. Infamous1

    HMMM… I’M NOT SURE IF HE WILL GO PLATINUM IN THE 1ST WK. SINCE THE ALBUM LEAKED ALOT OF PPL HAVEN’T REALLY BEEN FEELING DRAKE. HIS BUZZ IS BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN A LIL. I PERSONALLY THINK SO FAR GONE IS BETTER THAN THANK ME LATER, BUT BOTH ALBUMS REMIND ME OF 808′S & HEARTBREAK. I LIKE THE ALBUM, BUT I WOULDN’T SAY IT IS A CLASSIC HIP HOP ALBUM.

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  39. jan

    x-tina didnt sell shit because she’s a has been trying to copy lady gaga’s style.

    Drake will do btw 300-500k mark my words

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  40. MB92

    probably 150k, if not for limewire and other free music download stuff every artist would probably sell 1mill in their first week IMO

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  41. kevin

    I like being a hater when someone deserves it..Drake is overhyped and overrated…the man has got some damn talent but when u sound the same on EVERY song, ppl get tired of listening to it. He keeps it real? Really? Cause all i hear is him talk about how he made it and he’s got his money now. You want real? NO ONE keeps it more real than Eminem, especially right now. Drake will be 250,00 IF that. Em? Look at itunes right now, Recovery is the #2 album – BASED ON PRE-ORDERS..and its also #10 for the clean version. Em will destroy – at least 750,000 – and he damn well deserves it. Drake doesnt deserve anything considering he said “i wanna make music that is timeless and will last” – well when u do Drake- let us know.

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  42. Rosp

    I wish i could live in USA just to buy thank me later
    u.u

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  43. Christian

    I personally think that he will get either close to or above a million based on his fan base. The ones who are critiquing the album the hardest are the ones who weren’t going to buy it regardless. He has plenty of supporters out there and personally I think the album is sick. Let’s not use Christina as a decoding factor because although I purchased the DELUXE EDITION, it just wasn’t that good. If I wanted to hear “The Fame” I would have bought Lady GaGa’s not “Bionic”. Lol just a thought. Drake will do just fine, plus you make most of your money off of tours. THAT’S the way the industry operates nowadays.

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  44. EveryYearIsCiaras

    100k – 400k,
    I think it will sell, but not that well. I heard the leak, I like the singles and the tracks from “up all night” and on. But b4 dat, its boring, except Fireworks. I turned it off after the Resistance and Karaoke, b4 my friend convinced me to listen to the rest.

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  45. Lil Wanye Wez

    I don’t know? the album’s songs been pretty disappointing so far.

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  46. ciaraISdaBEST

    300k-350k

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  47. will

    its fucking hilarious when people actually think hes going to sale a million in its first week. he’ll be lucky to sale over 300,000. the difference between Thank Me Later and The Carter 3 is The Carter 3 had out of these world singles and people arent going to support the artists if they dont have the singles that everyone loves.

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  48. Jerry

    Drake Will Do At least 500,000 the first week Find Your Love will be Top 10 this week And his new single Miss Me Debuted at #15 perfect timing plus drake is on a major tour and he has a diverse Fan Base and he has three commercials out for his album he’ll do find plus i’m buying 2 copies

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  49. EMC

    I choose 300,001-400,000 and that is pretty massive numbers!!!!!!

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  50. JMystery

    Very surprised that many people think it’ll sell over a milli in the first week, but hey, it’s Drake. I’ll be very happy if he does.

    GO SUPPORT THE ARTIST, BUY THE ALBUM!

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  51. Kitty

    WELL BECOS HE IS A PUNK P…Y, HE WILL SELL BETWEEN 200,000-250,000 COPIES

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  52. beatmatic

    agree with Kity, he myte even sell less dn dt say 100 000 – 150 000

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  53. Vegard

    None of the singles was any good, but I guessing about 200.000 first week in US?

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  54. Ndash

    i reckon he will break wayne’s record. he is the hottest thing at the moment, for eg – check out how many people have been viewing his videos on you tube
    and check out his loyal fan base and i’m one of them and for sure i know that he will be sold out here in south africa within the fist week believe that. People can download all they want but us his true fans are buying Thank me later – so i reckon over a mill on his first week. think about this for a sec – how big is the Usa, Europe, Africa, Asia ect and think how many fans this boy has – so is a million not possible, i say hell no that ish is def possible for this boy.

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  55. smoove

    Drake will Debut at #1 with 554,238 Copies The first Week Second Week He’ll land at #2 or 3 falling Behind Eminem and Possibly Miley Cyrus and do 232,130 Copies and he’ll eventually go platinum in 3-4 weeks while Miss Me & Find Your Love impact the Billboard Charts… Copy & Paste this when Sound scan is revealed next week.

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  56. 100% Nikehead

    I think he will sell just under 600,000 copies even with the leak and everything. Drake got a big fanbase and i know a lot of people are gonna go out to buy the album. i know i will be tommorow.

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  57. Will

    For the first day alone i predict drake will sell atleast 300,000. People are gonna be buying that album like hotcakes tommorow for sure. Drake will probobly sell 600-700,000 copies first week even with the leak and if it wasnt for the leak maybe close to a million or even more. Drake will definately go gold in the first week though thats for sure.

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  58. unknown

    Don’t think so, but we will see. All the put down he is getting more than he ever gotten. He will sell but, no where near a million.

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  59. Dare

    You guys are too funny jay did 300k first week and y’all expect drake to do 500k. Didnt y’all see jay concerts vs Drake concerts thats a clue lol. The most he will do is 200k

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  60. Scud

    Dude gonna do 180k or 200k. Kid Cudi had a lot of buzz and 1 hell of a single. Granted drake has a bigger buzz but his singles are blah and his buzz has decreased a lot. I think many people were disappointed with the album. He diodnt have one major track and it was repetitive. He’s getting really bad reviews also.

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  61. Danni

    ^ What reviews have you been reading? Your own? He’s getting mostly positive reviews. Go read Rap-Up’s review roundup.

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  62. KG

    250,000

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  63. Antonio

    150,000-200,000

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  64. LShea

    100,000~200,000

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  65. Kyle

    Drake’s buzz for his debut album has been neverending for the past few months. I would say he would definitely do over 500K, but I don’t think it could top 1 million in its first week though.

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  66. fuck you you and you

    Who said they not purchasing his album becus he said fuck kim needs to sit the fuck down! Its nice to know you feel that way and Kim is a lil snobby bitch who needs to stop trying to get attention and nicki isn’t going to give her any so he did! So for you to say that I’m going to say fuck you , fuck kim janet Jackson looking ass and fuck your money for not wanting to buy thank me later! Lol

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  67. Drizzy

    Every lil wayne fan is a fan of drake and if lil wayne sold 1.2 million in the first week then it is very possible for drake to do the same
    Get Em Drizzy

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  68. Will

    To the people saying 100-200,000 yall are WRONG. Drake is gonna sell atleast 400,000 in the first day. His album is already getting sold out in some stores.

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  69. nas

    He’s gonna sell a million before the week is over leaving you people like how did that happen!

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  70. nas

    It’s at least s 100,000 people that’s gone buy two cd’s and I’m one of them and I like gangsta music so add that up!

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  71. John

    Crap Album Don’t waste your money

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  72. Trey

    300-400

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  73. Chris

    The album’s dope,
    at first i wasnt that amazed but now im in awe. Its an amazing body of work, it really does grow on you, this guy’s gonna do crazy numbers, go support him.

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  74. Mitch 3k

    He aint doin a million I guarantee it….400-500K

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  75. Hustlemanradio

    After listening to thank me later, y’all tripping every snog is a hit! its like the Chronic 2000 and 2001!

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  76. tarik

    the more i listen to it, the more I realize how complete the cd is. People who turn off the cd after resistance probably hate rnb to begin with and so dont understand how deep and crazy and versatile this dudes music is. Support this man. Songs I didn’t like are growing on me like crazy aka Karaoke, Resistance and half way through FANCY. Dude this cd is crazy add up all the potential hit singles
    who needs one crazy single when your entire cd are potential hits. “over, miss me, fall for your type, unforgettable, fancy, shut it down, resistance…” like seven singles!

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  77. 50 grand

    HOW DARE U PEOPLE DISRESPECT DRAKE…HE WILL SELL OVER 500,000 FIRST WEEK…HE WAS THE HYPE OF THE YEAR…WHAT OTHER NEW ARTIST HAS THE HYPE HE GOT NOW!!!!!

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  78. tony

    Of course he’s going to sell whatever its predicted that he is going to sell. THEY ARE NEVER WRONG. Billboard already knows which is why I’m always suspicious of how the music industry works. Billboard predicted Wayne to sell a million in one week. True me they have this shit pre planned.

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  79. J

    TO be honest I wouldn’t be shocked if he sold 1 million. The Massacre was garbage and sold a million. All you need is a name to sell now.

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  80. vonn

    if you was a real Drizzy fan you would have faith in his music,everybody loves Drake!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  81. DW

    if it wasnt for everybody downloading music then he probably would sale a million…the issue is that if ppl werent able to hear the songs be4 the cd came out then more ppl will buy it…im a example…if it wasnt for downloading and hearing it be4 it hit shelfs i would have been the 1st person to buy the cd but after i heard it i was disappointed…its good but not at the level that i pictured. Lets put it like this, I have already listened to Eminem’s Recovery and it is wayyyyyyyyy better than Thank You Later and im STILL going to buy it!!! Eminem will probably do a mill 1st wk, but not Drake, ill give him 500,000 copies or less.

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  82. DrizzyDrake

    Leaks ALWAYS hurt artists, In wayne’s case, he already had 2 albums before C3. Therefore makin his album instantly hot.

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  83. responses18

    this album is trash, major flop
    over hyped with no creativity
    the producers on the track gave drake some shit ass beats to work with

    i guess when u buy cheap beats from producers u get a cheap a lame album

    the album has no energy ,it sounds very simple and lame

    boi-1da beats all sound the same, his snare patterns are all the same and he has no keyboard skills

    the worst produced beat on the album was from timbaland

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  84. David

    Drake is “hot” right now, but the record sucks, especially if you compare to Eminem’s Recovery, Blueprint 3, or even Before I Self Destruct.

    It all depends if the marketing, brainwashing, and the flood of media hype convince people to buy it. My advice: Don’t waste your money.

    Dave

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  85. pat16

    i love the album and wouldn’t be surprised if it sold a milli. it has lots of hype and drakes fan base is massive and a lot of people determined to have a physical copy of the album. leaks don’t really matter tha carter 3 leaked several times before it’s release.

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